quartz/content/Knowledge/Mental models/Appeal to probability fallacy.md

title
Appeal to probability fallacy

What is it about?

It's the tendency to consider something certain, simply because it's likely. In other words: we overestimate the chance of an event occurring based on single signals that support it.

How I use Knowledge/Mental models/Appeal to probability fallacy?

I usually assume the opposite (Knowledge/Mental models/Inversion) and think about what I will do when something doesn't happen. At the same time, I look for ways and sights that can realistically increase the likelihood of an event happening (or prevent it).

The moment I catch myself justifying something to myself by giving either repeated reasons or looking for reasons, it means to me that Knowledge/Mental models/Appeal to probability fallacy is involved.