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title: Appeal to probability fallacy
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## What is it about?
It's the tendency to consider something certain, simply because it's likely. In other words: we overestimate the chance of an event occurring based on single signals that support it.

## How I use [[Knowledge/Mental models/Appeal to probability fallacy]]? 
I usually assume the opposite ([[Knowledge/Mental models/Inversion]]) and think about what I will do when something **doesn't** happen. At the same time, I look for ways and sights that can realistically increase the likelihood of an event happening (or prevent it).

The moment I catch myself justifying something to myself by giving either repeated reasons or looking for reasons, it means to me that [[Knowledge/Mental models/Appeal to probability fallacy]] is involved.